Diagnosis for Democracy
Insights into the State of Our Union
A Blog by Rob Tenery, MD


If Trump Wins It Will Be a Miracle...

By Rob Tenery, MD on June 13, 2016

…., if he loses, it will be a disaster.  Not good odds, either way.

Donald Trump has won more than enough delegates to win the nomination to be the Presidential nominee at the Republican Convention in Cleveland. He has also received more votes than any Republican primary candidate in history.

But, if given the choice, most Republican members in Congress would rather another candidate had won the nomination.  Although Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell and Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan have given their unenthusiastic approval of Trump, McConnell has told his fellow Republican Congressional officeholders that it is alright to distance themselves from Trump in their own election efforts.

Because Trump advocates building a wall on the Mexican border, and wants to uphold existing legislation on illegal immigration, the polls reveal he currently has very low support among this country’s Mexican population. Because he advocates for a moratorium on immigrants from the Middle Eastern countries that are caught up in the current turmoil, unless they are properly vetted, Trump’s popularity is very low with current Muslim voters. After Megyn Kelly’s opening question at the first Republican debate claiming that Trump  “called women you don’t like fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals”, his standing in the female community has been shaken.

With the Republican leadership, the majority of the Mexicans and Muslims in this country and female voters against him, who supports Trump? Millions and millions of voters that are fed-up with the direction the current administration and the Congress is taking this country. Does that add up to enough votes to get him elected?

Currently the answer seems to be no.  Because, added to that are many  of the teachers, professors, the unions in the past, the Jews, the blacks and many of those who are dependent of the Government subsidies that vote for the Democrat, regardless of who is the Republican nominee.

Four factors that could make this election different: The public’s almost total lack of confidence in the current Congress, the very poor performance by Obama both domestically* and abroad, despite his claims to the contrary, the flawed Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, who is campaigning on continuing many of Obama’s failed programs and the precarious direction this country is heading with mounting federal debt, undeliverable promises by the entitlement programs and an invasion of at our southern border.  

Unless Obama stands by his word to appoint Chief Judge Merrick Garland, a moderate, if the Democratic candidate wins the election, the next Supreme Court appointment will almost surely be a liberal. This shift, along with possibly several others that may come in the next four years, will change the courts decisions for years to come. Additionally, if a Democratic wins, the question of what to do with illegal aliens almost certainly will turn them into future liberal voters.

Secretary of State John Kerry recently told the graduating class of Northeastern University to “prepare for a borderless world.” With Great Britain on the verge of pulling out of the European Union, Kerry is just echoing Obama and George Soros’ goal of a one-world order. To the contrary, President Ronald Reagan stated, “a nation that cannot control its borders is not a nation.”

At the forefront of trying to help bring understanding to the significance of where this country is headed with its out-of-control spending commitments is Laurence J. Kotlikoff PhD. A Harvard trained economist, who currently holds a Professorship at Boston University, Kotlikoff points out that the $17 going on $18 trillion deficit only covers a small portion of the real debt owed by this country with its obligations into the future. In a November 6, 2013 interview with Financial Sense Insider, Professor Kotlikoff said, “The liabilities the government owes are mostly off the books.” Social security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, etc are all obligations that have to be paid at some time in the future and are not included in the so-called federal debt. Whereas, paying off future principal and interest on Treasury notes are listed.  “If you take the value of all those commitments and subtract all the taxes coming (in) to pay those commitments, the difference is what ‘s called the fiscal gap; and that fiscal gap in the U.S. is now $205 trillion,” continued Kotlikoff.

The Democrats and the previous Republican administrations have mostly turned a blind eye to the issues of a porous border. With respect to out of control spending and unrealistic future entitlement commitments, the Democratic Party leaders are so dependent on their current constituency that they can’t see beyond the next election. Neither issue can go unchecked any longer without disastrous effects to our country.

If Hillary Clinton is able to avoid indictment over her handling of the emails while she was Secretary of State, this election boils down to a choice between the flawed insider and the outspoken outsider. Looking back at the failures of our present administration and Mrs. Clinton herself, the choice of Donald Trump should be clear!

References:


*Financial and Employment Statistics Under President Obama

When President Obama took office the unemployment rate was 7.6%. Currently the employment rate is quoted at 5.8%. The administration also claims to have created 8.7 million new jobs under his tenure.

These numbers fail to tell the whole story. A truer measurement of the current U.S. unemployment, which also measures those who are working part-time but would like to work full-time, is 11.4%

The labor force participation rate measures the number of Americans who have a job or who are actively seeking one. That rate is 62.8% and is at a 36-year low. 92 million Americans have dropped out of the labor force and are no longer seeking employment. When President Obama took office that number was about 80 million. Most of those are individuals who have failed to find employment or a job that pays them enough to work rather than go on one or several of the government’s entitlement programs.

12 million more Americans have dropped out of the labor force since January 2009. Even using the administration’s claim of 8.7 million jobs added, then leaves a net loss of 3.3 million jobs over the last 7 years.

Other national statics:

Median household income adjusted for inflation:

January 2009: $56,957

November 2015: $56, 746

Labor participation rate:

January 2009: 65.7%

November 2015: 62.6%

Americans on food stamps:

January 2009: 31.90 million

November 2015: 45.36 million

Americans in poverty:

2008: 39.82 million

2014: 46.65 million

U.S. National debt:           

January 2009: $10.62 trillion

January 2016: $18.89 trillion

 





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