Diagnosis for Democracy
Insights into the State of Our Union
A Blog by Rob Tenery, MD


Did Hillary Finally Get Her Win?

By Rob Tenery, MD on November 9, 2018

The Democrats are winners of the midterm elections in the House of Representatives giving them a clear majority. Taking a backseat in the media headlines is the Republican pick up in the Senate to increase their dominant majority. 

Now that the Democrats will control the House, they will be nipping at President Trump’s coattails for the next two years demanding the release of his tax returns and an extensive review of his past business dealings. They may also vote to impeach him in the House, but with the Senate, now even more in the Republican column, a trial to impeach him in the Senate will never be successful. The Democrats may also attempt to unseat Justice Bret Kavanaugh from the Supreme Court. But with the Democratic fiasco at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, they will only open up a sore that could come back to haunt them when the 2020 elections come around.

With the Democratic takeover of the House, Trump’s legislative proposals on further tax cuts, reforming or replacing Obamacare, trade and immigration are dead in the water. The Presidents’ only option is to use his power through Executive Orders. Fortunately for Trump, immigration legislation is already in place to accomplish a lot of what he wants just by more strict enforcement of existing law. The chance of expanding the wall with Mexico over the next two years seems bleak. Further tax reduction legislation is out, but so is the Democrats claim of reversing the new tax law going into effect this year.  This could be a good time for the Republicans and the Democrats to come together to fix the current problems in Obamacare, which Trump would probably sign without reservation. The trade deals with China and the European Union and the Iran and North Korea negotiations are still under Trump’s control whether the House Democrats agree or not.

The Democrats poured a tremendous amount of money into the campaigns hoping to capitalize on the ‘blue wave’ that was predicted after Trump’s win in 2016.  Judging by their significant gains in the House, their efforts were successful. But their probable losses in the Senate in Florida and Beto’s loss to Cruz in Texas, the multi-millionaire deep pockets bankrolling their Party may not be as generous come the 2020 election against Trump if the economy keeps rolling at its current pace. The Electoral College votes in those two states are critical to the Democrats winning elections for Presidency from now on. Although they weren’t successful this time, turning these two states from red to blue, with their increasing Hispanic population, it may be only a matter of time until they do.

In the long run, the Republican gain in the Senate could be more important than the Democrats wins in the House. Because over the next two years, Trump should be able to load the many open positions for judges in the District Courts across the country, since they only require approval by a now even more Republican Senate. Additionally, if another position opens on the Supreme Court in the next two years, the reoccurrence of the Democratic fiasco during the Kavanaugh hearings is probably less likely.

The other likely outcome by the Democratic win in the House will be to drop any push for charges against Hillary Clinton, the Democratic National Committee and even Obama himself for the shenanigans they pulled on the FISA courts and the unverified Steele dossier, even if the report by the Inspector General recommends action be taken. However, that may not be enough to let upper echelons of the FBI and the Justice Department off the hook for the crimes they committed to influence the outcome or alter the results of the 2016 election.

President Trump campaigned without letup across the country to stop the ‘blue wave’ takeover and it appears his efforts paid off in the Senate races. He is now, unquestionably, in control of the Republican Party in Washington, D.C. How that translates to his success in the upcoming 2020 election? Let’s just say, I wouldn’t bet against him! 

* The 2010-midterm election results under President Obama were 63 seats gained in the House of Representatives by the Republicans and 5 seats in the Senate. Under President George W. Bush, the 2006 midterm election results, the Democrats gained 32 seats in the House and 7 places in the Senate. 





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