Diagnosis for Democracy
Insights into the State of Our Union
A Blog by Rob Tenery, MD


Illegal Immigrants Could Determine Our Next President

By Rob Tenery, MD on February 1, 2019

Judge rejects citizenship question for 2020 U.S. census, Reuters Tuesday, 15 January 2019: The administration's addition of a U.S. citizenship question to the 2020 census--- the first ruling in a handful of lawsuits that claim the query will hurt immigration.

This ruling by the federal court came from a suit filed by 18 states, 15 cities and various civil rights groups to clarify the status of residents residing in this country. The underlying reason for this suit is to address the increasing influence on federal election outcomes created by illegal aliens. 

The decennial (10 year) census, coming up again in 2020, is used to calculate federal appropriations to the states as well as their representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. States with higher populations have more members in the U.S. House, thus more votes that they cast in Electoral College.

The U.S. Census figures are based on actual counts of persons dwelling in U.S. residential structures. They include citizens, non-citizen legal residents, non-citizen long-term visitors and illegal immigrants. Since the number of representatives is fixed by law at 435 (6 non-voting members) in the House of Representatives, states with increases in their population potentially gain representatives at the expense of those who don’t. 

Using the number of 11 million illegal aliens residing in this country, that number works out to potentially be 15 Electoral College votes attributed to those who reside illegally in this country. If the number of illegals is closer to 30 million, as some report, by including those who also overstay their visas, the affect to the Electoral College could go up to 44. Out of the 538 total electoral votes, illegal aliens contribute from 3 to 8.2 percent of the Electoral College numbers. 

As an example, if the caravan, reportedly 2500 strong from Central America, is allowed to come into this country, they are immediately entitled to a trial. Even though most, who show up for their trial, are sent back to their native country. Only about 5% show up for their court date. This means that over 2400 disappear into the fabric of this country. If they stay in California, a sanctuary state, when the 2020 census is taken, their presence adds a portion of another vote in California’s Electoral College count at the expense of a state that either lost some of their population or didn’t grow as much.

Using rough data of 2014 illegal alien population and 2019 general population data, the four states of California, Texas, Florida and New York comprise about 33% of the general population, while having almost 51% of the illegal aliens. 

House of Representative apportionment: Each of the four states profiled above is different in their population of illegal immigrants. California is now a sanctuary state and relies heavily on immigrant agriculture workers.  In Texas, although May 7, 2018 will mark one year since Governor Greg Abbott signed a ban on 'sanctuary cities' into law, many local officials are reluctant to ask for ‘papers’ of suspected illegals. Key West, Florida is only 90 miles from Cuba and has a very large population of Cuban immigrants that fled their native home. New York City is a sanctuary city.  

 From 2010 to 2019, California, Texas, Florida and New York populations grew 9,489,202 or at a 9.25% rate . The 46 remaining states grew 12,960,624 or at a 5.86% rate and only at 45.2% of the 4 largest states. Additionally, these four states have grown 57.8% more in those 19 years than the other 46.*

As the graph below demonstrates over the last 40 years California, Texas and Florida have gained significant representation in the US House of Representatives, while New York State has lost much of theirs. Although the allotment number varies from state to state, the average per representative is 710,764 counted in the 10 year US Census. Remembering that illegal aliens are counted for representation by the census for their state's count in the Electoral College, their numbers become very important when this country is so evenly divided between Republican and Democrat. 

Since immigrants from countries south of the border tend to vote liberal 70+ percent of the time, it is in the Democrats best interest to leave the US Census policy intact, leaving states to slowly turn from red to purple to blue. 

                         ~~

Apportionment breakdown:

                        1970:                           2000:            2010: 

California           43                                  53                 53      

Texas                  24                                  32                 36

Florida               15                                  25                  27

New York          39                                  29                  27

                                                                                                                ~~

Since enactment of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, federal law has prohibited noncitizens from voting in federal elections, punishing them by fines, imprisonment, inadmissibility, and deportation.* It would seem that this same group should also not be able to influence the outcome of federal elections and the Electoral College vote by their very presence in this country either.

The best way to rectify this contradiction is to first identify their presence in the decennial census survey as the recent suit has proposed. Then, if the Supreme Court reverses the federal judge’s decision, the next step would be to separate the state allocations for federal subsidies from the states’ proportional representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. Then continue their inclusion in the state subsidies calculations, since these illegals presence is a financial burden, but eliminate their numbers from the representation calculations. This would then be more in line with the intent with Reform and Immigration Responsibility Act.

A recent Pew survey predicts that Hispanics will be the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the electorate, accounting for just over 13 percent of eligible voters. This change reflects the gradual but continuous growth in the Hispanic share of eligible voters, up from 9 percent in the 2008 presidential election and 7 percent in the 2000 election.

There are two straightforward changes that could end the two-Party bickering. The first is that only citizens who entered or are born in this country legally be allowed to vote in national and state elections. Second, is only these same citizens are counted in the 10-year census that are used for the determination for representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. 

The liberal Democratic Party will fight this change all the way to the Supreme Court. With a Republican in White House, the Senate still held by a Republican majority and the conservative leaning Supreme Court, this may be the last chance to halt this country’s slow decent into socialism.

* WORK PAPERS:

2014 Illegal aliens by state:

 California                                       2.9 million        (23.24%)

 Texas                                              1.92 million       (15.84%)

Florida                                            760 thousand    (6.27%)

New York                                         640 thousand   (5.23%)

Total of 4our states                  6,220 million  (50.58% of all states 12.2 million)

2019 Population:

                           California            39,776,231

                            Texas                  29, 104, 064  

                            Florida                21, 312, 211

                            New York           19, 875, 625

Total population of 4 states         110,098,131  or 33.2%  (331+ million)





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